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Record world alpha supply - and the price of hops?

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  • Record world alpha supply - and the price of hops?

    OK, I commented on another thread about the world hop situation, and watered down Rick's original post about the financial markets and the supply of money - my apologies - now let's talk hops.

    I found this at Hopsteiner the other day - a simply massive amount of alpha acid (apparently the main method of judging crops and supply year to year) is being predicted for the world market which suggests for me that a true glut of hops should be imminent



    Thoughts?
    Last edited by einhorn; 11-17-2008, 06:44 PM. Reason: bad link

  • #2
    My thought is the breweries who contracted for years out at 2007 prices are probably not very happy.

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    • #3
      This does not sound like a good way to judge the hop harvest to me. We are getting a lot of newer hop varieties that have massive AA numbers compared to years gone by. High AA hops are prefered by growers because of higher yeilds right? Sounds to me like a good way to make misleading numbers. Higher AA harvest does not mean higher poundage harvest does it? I think the harvest will be better, but I have my doubts about going from last years shortage to the best harvest in years.
      Last edited by BrewinLou; 11-18-2008, 06:24 AM.
      Joel Halbleib
      Partner / Zymurgist
      Hive and Barrel Meadery
      6302 Old La Grange Rd
      Crestwood, KY
      www.hiveandbarrel.com

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      • #4
        According to the numbers...

        According to the numbers (chart) it is huge, high quality crop and the world's alpha supply is the way of saying Quality x Quantity while considering demand - nothing misleading about it. As expected, the 5-6 fold price increases spurred on many farmers around the globe to plant hops this year. This seems to be the result of the 2007 perfect storm reversed - high acerage + good crops + lower beer demand + no warehouse fires.

        The decreased AA yield associated with first year plantings seem to be calculated into this, which means next year (2010) could see a complete collapse of the market.

        Just a hypothesis.

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        • #5
          then it's time for everybody to go alpha crazy again!

          Seriously though, I think after last year's shortage, most brewers are much more careful about their hop usage... and we may really see that reflected on the demand.

          I doubt the supplier will just let the price drop for the free market pricing.

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          • #6
            Re

            Perhaps a worthy effort for the Brewer's Association would be to break up the small craft brewery hop oligopoly that currently exists in the US.

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            • #7
              Given the continued huge growth of a very populous beer market in Far Eastern countries I will continue to worry about hop supply until those countries become more self sufficient.

              Pax.

              liam
              Liam McKenna
              www.yellowbellybrewery.com

              Comment


              • #8
                Aa

                HI Guys:

                After the Hop Harvest we (MBAA District Mid South) received an update
                on present and future of the quality and availability of hops from Mike Sutton, Sales Manager from SS Hop Steiner.
                I'm not so much concerned about the high AA, as they are set
                in a contract, and depending on your supplier and history with the supplier,
                are not so high as expected.
                I like to use higher AA in beers, as the usage is reduced and the trub cone is less in the kettle.
                Just my 2 C

                Fred

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                • #9
                  Take home message?

                  So does anyone know what the take home message is for this year? Will we have enough hops for everyone?

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                  • #10
                    alpha glut

                    According to the USDA 2008 hop report, of the new acreage planted nearly all of it is high and super high alpha variety intended for supercritical CO2extraction and oil sales. For large growers and big beer, this is the future, gang. But, for the artisan brewer and local growers this is a boon. In Wisconsin we're working hard at establishing a more stable hop market for the Midwestern Region. We're well underway and our brewers are enthusiastic. We'd like to share our experiences with others in and out of the Midwest.
                    James Altwies
                    Director/Horticulturist
                    Gorst Valley Hops
                    www.gorstvalleyhops.com

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