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  • Determining Sales

    I am working on a business plan and want to find the best way to determine your future sales? I can understand sales to a distributor but how can you predict what you can sell out of your taproom (no brewpub)? Do you just set budgetary numbers and then strive to hit those? Any advice would be great or resources.

  • #2
    Establishing sales forecast that are reliable require looking at a lot of different factors. Here are some of the questions you need to ask yourself.

    Location: Is the tasting room easily accessible to large numbers of people or is it off the beaten path. If its in a place with good access to people, parking and visible to traffic passing by then you can expect sales to be higher. If the tap room is on the back side of a industrial complex on the outskirts of town with no visibility then driving traffic is going to much more difficult.

    Marketing: Have you budgeted anything for marketing at this point in your planning? Marketing consist of more than just running ads in local media but should include special promotions and events especially ones at the tap room itself.

    Food: Having your brewery and tap room have access to food will make a huge difference in how much beer you sell. If there are restaurants near by that do take out and you have a few tables for people to sit and eat and drink then plan for higher sales.

    Entertainment: Give customers something to do when they're there. Put in a couple dart boards or a bocce ball court to basketball hoops. The more things to do that are in addition to drinking a beer the longer they'll stay and the more they'll buy.

    Now that you've figured out about how many people you think you can attract per day to the tasting room assign dollar figure to each one. If you think an average visitor is going to drink 2 pints and or fill 1 growler then average thoe two purchases out and you have your average ticket. Take that number and multiply it by the estimated number of people through door each day and you have your daily sales. Keep going up the ladder until you have annual in store sales.
    Owner
    Grind Modern Burger
    PostModern Brewers
    Boise, ID

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    • #3
      ^^^ good starting point.

      After you have done this, consider your seating capacity & opening hours to test feasibility of your numbers.

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      • #4
        What numbers are you guys using for turns per day?

        I am using 2 pints, 1.5 turns per day (Sun-Thurs) and 2.5 turns per day (Fri, Sat and operating holidays) multipled by seating capacity.

        Any issues with that?

        In case you were wondering, downtown location with majors streets nearby and outdoor seating area. We are looking at adding a pool table or two. Would it be crazy to just have free pool tables?
        Little Deep Brewing Company
        Minot, North Dakota
        www.littledeepbrewing.com

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        • #5
          Consider this: you are saying that, if you have 100 seats in your place, you are expecting to sell 300 pints of beer on average, EVERY DAY from Sunday to Thursday. Depending on your opening hours (assuming after 5 pm) this means until 1 am you sell 50 pints every hour, almost one pint per minute . Do you think you can sell this every day?

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          • #6
            Originally posted by thatjonguy
            What numbers are you guys using for turns per day?

            I am using 2 pints, 1.5 turns per day (Sun-Thurs) and 2.5 turns per day (Fri, Sat and operating holidays) multipled by seating capacity.

            Any issues with that?
            I am assuming 1 turn = 2 hours. I came to that conclusion after spending time at different local establishments and asking bartenders, waitresses, etc. for their personal experience.
            Kevin Shertz
            Chester River Brewing Company
            Chestertown, MD

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by einhorn
              Consider this: you are saying that, if you have 100 seats in your place, you are expecting to sell 300 pints of beer on average, EVERY DAY from Sunday to Thursday. Depending on your opening hours (assuming after 5 pm) this means until 1 am you sell 50 pints every hour, almost one pint per minute . Do you think you can sell this every day?
              Hopefully! I think with the right promotions we can in the right location.

              I know everything is so location/community dependant.

              Anyone care to share their best promotions?
              Little Deep Brewing Company
              Minot, North Dakota
              www.littledeepbrewing.com

              Comment


              • #8
                [QUOTE=thatjonguy We are looking at adding a pool table or two. Would it be crazy to just have free pool tables?[/QUOTE]

                Charge for pool. If you have a slow day of the week you could try free pool that day. We have a pool table and it brings way more $$$ then I ever thought it would. Get as much as you can form those oil guys.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by schmogger
                  Charge for pool. If you have a slow day of the week you could try free pool that day. We have a pool table and it brings way more $$$ then I ever thought it would. Get as much as you can form those oil guys.
                  Sounds good to me!
                  Little Deep Brewing Company
                  Minot, North Dakota
                  www.littledeepbrewing.com

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                  • #10
                    I'd definitely charge for pool since you'll spend a considerable amount keeping the pool cues and balls all maintained. I wouldn't charge a lot but I'd definitely charge.

                    I'm not sure on the rules in ND for growler fills but I'd really promote a growler program if possible.
                    Owner
                    Grind Modern Burger
                    PostModern Brewers
                    Boise, ID

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                    • #11
                      Isn't it all a swag?(super wild ass guess) and a prayer? The distributor will be "buying" nothing. The real buying will be done by John Q. Public. With the shelves already crowded, what makes you think the world is ready to beat a path to your beer?

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Larry Doyle
                        Isn't it all a swag?(super wild ass guess) and a prayer? The distributor will be "buying" nothing. The real buying will be done by John Q. Public. With the shelves already crowded, what makes you think the world is ready to beat a path to your beer?
                        Sure, its a guess but it should be an educated guess based on real data. If you do the research, take the time to consider variables and don't delude yourself then you can be pretty accurate. When we did our business plan we did a 5 year projection and we were within single digits of that projection in the first year and exceeded our forecast by almost 20% in the second.

                        As for people being ready for his product, who says the people were ever ready for any product. If a business owner waited until people were lining up outside their door begging for product then no one would ever open a business.

                        It doesn't matter how crowded the shelves are or whether or not people are clamoring for something right then and there. What matters is you bring your product to market in a way that is exciting to the customer, provides them with something they find valuable and you will succeed.

                        No one thought our town needed a place to buy craft beer other than the one place we'd had for years. No one thought a place selling only craft beer and no wine or spirits could be successful. No one thought our town could support more more than one specialty beer store. We've proven them wrong on every single point and we're growing like a weed.
                        Owner
                        Grind Modern Burger
                        PostModern Brewers
                        Boise, ID

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                        • #13
                          That was an excellent response.

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                          • #14
                            Thank you for your responses. They were very helpful. For those that have a taproom only, what kind of volume do you produce vs. in-house draft sales?

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