The Pre Ordering...

[Triose]

I'm aware of all the factors that have caused this recent hop crisis...diminishing acerage, the fire making buyers nervous, the bad growing season and new demand from China...

But I am also aware that the large macro breweries have been steadily losing market share to the craft industry for the last decade.

Do you think that the large breweries are taking advantage of the dimishing supply and the relatively new Pre-order concept to Pre-order far more than what they need in order to exacerbate the shortage and squeeze the craft industry?

It would make economic sense for them to do this...They could easily absorb the cost of storing extra hops; and they could always release them back into the market at an inflated price.

Or am I way off base?...Anyway...just a thought.

Maybe the Pre-order system could be tweaked...automatic renewals; automatic renewal plus adjustment for growth...Or keep a certain percentage of hops exempt from pre ordering?

I dont know...too much to ponder...Now I need a beer. A good hoppy NW IPA!

[frigatebay]

I do think there is some of that going on definitely

[ECB]

Either that..............or aliens.

Sorry, I know i'll get slammed for that one.

[Neckbone]

Either that..............or aliens.

Sorry, I know i'll get slammed for that one.

Or those damed homebrewers!!

[Triose]

Aliens drinking beer?

Makes total sense now! Thats why they abduct fatties from trailer parks and analy probe them. Its just all drunken alien spring break fun

[einhorn]

That is a really interesting thought, which has been going around my head since reading it yesterday. We all know the "why?", which is stated in the original post, but then you get to the "how?". It would have to be a huge conspiricy, similar to Lincoln & JFK. And when you think about it, the word "BREWERY" also has 7 letters like LINCOLN or KENNEDY... Do the similarities stop there? I think so.

I think that it is feasable, but not possible. In the world of globalisation, hops, grains and pork bellies are an international market. It would take from the suppy side either a monopoly or at least a oligopoly to make it work, which is not the case. And I believe that farmers are seeing the prices this year, many will be planting next year, which is why I also believe that the increase in grain prices will also be back to "normal" next year.

What is more intereting now, is who might be looking to plant their own hops, if possible?

Prosit!

[Triose]

Well you know what they say

The little fish gets eaten by the big fish and the big fish gets eaten by the bigger fish.

We have been seeing alot of beer industry mergers lately. Heck, if I were hired by the new Miller/Coors/A.B./InBev/Molson megacompany, and was hired to make a strategy to regain slipping market share...

The first thing I'd do is use our muscle to disrupt their commodities supply.

Heck, its how Enron managed to charge so much to California for such a long time....manufactured shortages. ADM did the same thing. Total collusion among the worlds commodities brokers....Gasoline anyone?

That being said, I was just musing...It would be hard for the mega breweries to do this because they dont use the aroma hops that we are short on. And farmers are making more money with the high alpha hops right now.

I just scored 400 lbs each of Armarillo and Centinnial flowers. Im thinking of tweaking all my recipies to be bittered upfront mildly in the boil with Columbus (very high alpha) and doing all my character hopping with the flowers in the secondary. Whereas I used to add quite a bit of character hops late in the boil.

I still cant get any EKG's. Oh well, thats the way brewing has always been...using what you have...We have just been spoiled with riches these past few decades.

[AlexisScarlett]

Or those damed homebrewers!!

Wait is that homebrewers insufficently committed to going to hell or completely committed to being female

I had to look up some words:
it is a big market for barley with many producers but just a few buyers.(oligopsony)
And then malt is a few producers and some darn big buyers and also many small buyers (oligophy)
It looks like a set up for shortage for littles on both side of the equation

Seed stock is at the same level as last year out here -- no one is jumping in yet