Project Volumes for Brewpub/Taproom
Hello all, I've been lurking in the forums for some time now and have a question that I haven't seen much information on. I tried searching but came up empty.
I'm going through the financial analysis for a brewery and attached taproom in the upper Midwest. I'd like to ask those of you what type of sales volumes I can expect. I'm opening in an MSA of about 260,000 residents. There are several colleges in town and a growing craft beer scene.
We will be located downtown which is the "happening" place in our community drawing people for events year round and the area of nightlife for many young professionals.
There are a few beer bars in our area but nothing that brews on site and serves their own beer. Technically we'll be a brewpub but will have a limited menu of pizza from a local pizza place and I expect beer sales to far outnumber pizza sales. The taproom will likely seat around 50 people and have 12 of our own beers on tap.
With all of that said, are my projections of about 650 pints/week out of line? Too high, too low?
Thanks in advance.
NOTE: The original post was deleted due to improper naming in the title. If you had posted under this thread originally, please reply with your response from the original. Thanks.
Originally Posted by jhbrews
Each market is different, and I know nothing more than you've mentioned but I'd say you're incredibly low. I can't really imagine you'd be profitable in a downtown area of that size by only selling ~130-150BBLS per year. I say that due to rent costs, etc. If you've done the market research and people in the area are taking to craft beer but have few options, you'd likely sell substantially more if the quality is solid.
According to the numbers I've ran, and they've been vetted thoroughly, those volumes would sustain me well if I had no debt. Unfortunately, that won't be the case. I, too, suspect these numbers are low but have no hard proof of others that have done better in any market. Thanks for your input.
Ask for review of numbers
Search out others that have done similar things and try to get their input on your numbers. They'll let you know if you have accounted for everything.