Projections for second year? (Business Plan)

[zachj9292]

What do you guys recommend for projecting sales for year two for a start up brewery?

I plan on having a 20 barrel brewhouse. Only 1000 barrels in the first year. Is there a way to determine the second year and after by studying the market of the area or should i pull it out of my ass?

1500 bbls?
2000 bbls?

what it be

[ChesterBrew]

Where to begin... so many variables...

- location
- retail/wholesale assumptions
- ability to legally sell on-premies
- distribution model off-premises
- number of retail venues available
- number of different beers in the distribution channel versus sales on-site

That's all just off the top of my head...

[einhorn]

Many factors involved with projections, almost too many to list. You need to give more info if you want credible answers, and if you are able to present us with the things we need to figure it out, you will already have the answer.

Things to consider

1) production vs brewpub
2) if brewpub - seating, hours and sales of neighbors
3) how many outlets (potential customers) in your area, both on & off premise
4) self distributing vs distributor
5) your market/population
6) craft beer status quo in your area
7) bottling yes/no
8) enough cooperage for growth
9) sales force or lack thereof
10) distributors in satellite markets
11) will you beer be any good/in high demand
12) your marketing
13) your pricing
14) types of beers

and the list goes on....your projections should be answered in your business plan.

Good luck!