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Sales Projections - opinions welcome on reasonableness

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  • Sales Projections - opinions welcome on reasonableness

    Looking for a reality check on this start-up scenario. We will be a 10bbl brewery with a pizza and salads only kitchen and taproom. We will offer 12 varieties of beer and limit our strictly limited food offering of artisan pizza and salads. Our location will be a 6000 sq ft warehouse style bldg with 70 parking spaces and a population within 5 miles of 77,000 medium to upper income demographics. 15 mile radius population is 720,000 people.

    We will be open 7 days per week, average of 8 hours per day.

    The closest brewery is 5 miles away. We are planning on having about 2500 sq ft of taproom seating (125 seats) plus another 50 seats on an outdoor patio area.

    We plan on producing 600-1000 barrels in first year, selling vast majority through taproom at $6 per pints and growlers....very limited, if any self-distribution of kegs.

    My forecasts have monthly sales at $70,000 initially and growing to $100,000 per month or more. (Beer + Pizza) I'm assuming sales to be 50% beer, 50% pizza. Our goal is to create a $1.2M - $1.5M revenue business with 30% Net Profit Margins. We think it would be manageable and a nice return on capital invested...and simple.

    Does this scenario see, reasonable? Critiques welcome. Total investment is expected to be $525,000 (not including the building construction and land).

    Thanks,

    Dan
    Little Miami Brewing
    Cincinnati, OH
    Last edited by littlemiamibrew; 07-19-2016, 01:42 PM.
    Dan Lynch, Co-Founder
    Little Miami Brewing Company
    Old Milford, Ohio

  • #2
    So what is included in that $.5M cost not including construction and land? I would guess your 10BBL brewhouse with enough other stuff to produce 1000-1500BBL per year to be about $200-300K, and then the kitchen to be another $200-300K, right? So are you including upfit, furniture, MEP, etc in construction costs? What about working capital for the first year or so until you start hitting your revenue goals? What about simply paying your own salaries? The sales projections sound realistic enough, if you really think you can bring that many people through the door steadily.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by TheCarolinian View Post
      So what is included in that $.5M cost not including construction and land? I would guess your 10BBL brewhouse with enough other stuff to produce 1000-1500BBL per year to be about $200-300K, and then the kitchen to be another $200-300K, right? So are you including upfit, furniture, MEP, etc in construction costs? What about working capital for the first year or so until you start hitting your revenue goals? What about simply paying your own salaries? The sales projections sound realistic enough, if you really think you can bring that many people through the door steadily.
      Thanks Carolinian. The $500K includes the Brewhouse tanks etc,keg washer,glycol chiller, Pizza Oven, walk-in cooler, all other pizza prep equipment, furniture, and buildout of bar and taproom area (elec, plumbing, lighting, etc). Granted I could be off by $100K so I have a financing plan to have $600K available if needed. I have factored in $24K per month in wages and salaries for Brewer, Kitchen, Bar staff. This will be a self-serve model with no servers for food. Just walk-up to window and order pizza. I own another business and can fund additional working capital if needed, but am forecasting that we can cover costs at about $56K per month as our breakeven point.

      The only way we will be able to bring that number of people through the door is with great beer and great pizza. period.

      Thanks for your input.
      Dan Lynch, Co-Founder
      Little Miami Brewing Company
      Old Milford, Ohio

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      • #4
        Notice this is an old post. Has this business taken off?? Looking at a very similar business structure and size to this one so I'm curious how the numbers have been.


        Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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        • #5
          business is set to open November/December...we are new construction.
          Dan Lynch, Co-Founder
          Little Miami Brewing Company
          Old Milford, Ohio

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