View Poll Results: How many accounts per month should a 5k bbl brewery attempt to add?

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Thread: Need some help estimating sales - Monthly account pickup for 5k bbl brewery?

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Location
    San Diego, CA, USA
    Posts
    8

    Need some help estimating sales - Monthly account pickup for 5k bbl brewery?

    Looking for help to check my math on how many accounts we comfortable add each month to gauge our growth rate and decide between self distribution and using a 3rd party distributor.

    Let's say production capacity is 5k barrels annually. First year, moved 600 through the taproom. Second year comes distribution.

    If we only distributed half barrels, we be looking at 9,200 half barrels delivered in a year.

    Assumption #1: A typical retailer would dispense 1 keg per month. I know consumption rates would vary between retailers, but is 30 days a pretty good overall average?
    Assumption #2: The average account would require 3 kegs to maintain - 1 on tap, 1 in their coldroom, and one in our coldroom ready for delivery?
    Assumption #3: For each 1,000 barrels/year we would distribute, we would need roughly 80 accounts. To maintain those accounts, we'd have to have 240 kegs. To max production, we'd have to have 368 accounts and over 1,000 kegs.
    Assumption #4: 80 accounts would make 20 deliveries a week which a single driver could handle. At max, that would be just under 100 keg delivers each week. I'd imagine a single delivery driver could handle that as that's only about 20 kegs per day?

    Lastly, I'd like to set a monthly sales target, but I don't know how many accounts to target adding each month so I added a poll. I assume that a 3rd party distributor could add accounts faster than going the self-distribution route thanks to their connections, but wasn't sure if/how many more accounts per month I should estimate?

    Thanks for any advice!

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    107

    I think accounts are more fickle these days and the constant consumer demand for NEW!

    and DIFFERENT! mans there is no such thing as a permanent tap handle, so your beer may be very well received and yet still not stay on, at any given bar/restaurant, after the first two kegs are sold through. If they even buy 2 on the first go-round. The good news is, they will return to you--they won't have any more loyalty to the beer that replaces yours on that handle. The other good news is, this fickleness means your competitors don't have a stranglehold on the tap handles you're hoping to acquire, either. But you may need 2-3 retailers for each half bbl you expect to sell each month, in your projections. (I would say a 2-3 week turnaround might be more accurate as well--if your beer is taking a month to cycle through, the retailer might not be enthusiastic about re-ordering.)

    But your mileage may vary, obviously. In my market, if you are say Odd13 or Weldwerks you are probably not experiencing what I said above. (I represented a, let's just say, less "hot" brewery which is no longer in existence...)

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