Price projections for my business plan

[nwcw2001]

Hello Everyone,

I know there are some people that have posted question similar to this.

I am in the process of writing a business plan and need real world numbers. I need to find out what people are projecting prices for hops and malt for the next year or so. I am looking to project for the next 15 months or so. I realize that we don't know what the prices will be for 2008 will be but we know that there is a major increase coming. If anyone could give me a "ballpark" for hops and malts, that would be great.

I know that BeerSmith has his contracts for next year, so I would love to get some numbers to plug into my business plan.

Thanks for all the help and education guys,

John

[Tash]

What to expect for hops...

Please don't quote me on this but it is my understanding from those in the trade that when the dust finally settles hops will remain fairly high. Don't expect to see hops dip below $15.00 a pound ever again unless you are a very large concern. It will vary by variety and of course some are being pulled up by growers in favor of high alpha types. Point being as certain types become rare expect prices to skyrocket. The day of $30.00 a pound hops is upon us...

Cheers!

Tash

[nwcw2001]

Yeah I know that the prices of both are going up quickly. The numbers on JVNW are giving us $.30/# for malt and $2/# for hops. From the sounds of thing, these sound a bit short.

Any newer numbers would be great.

Thanks guys,

John

[beertje46]

Call your anticipated malt supplier and have them fax over a price list. $15.00/# should be a solid number for hops.

[BeersmithMT]

Since I was mentioned I'll chime in here. I think the previous posters are correct - plan on $15/lb hops in the long term - and yes it could be higher. Since the number of hop growers Worldwide are so few, expect more and larger fluctuations. As far as malt goes, I don't think prices are going to change this year as much as they did last year. From what I've been hearing expect level pricing to 20% increase this year - it all depends on the situation at harvest. Since the carryout (leftover un-malted malting barley stocks) are so low right now, it will take 2-3 years of good+ harvests to bring stability back to the market. I am expecting bulk (unbagged) pale malt in between 30 and 50 cents per lb over the next few years - again depending on many planting/weather/harvest/demand variables. I hope that helps!

[nwcw2001]

That helps a bunch. Thanks guys for all of your help. I think I am that much closer to a workable business plan.

Thanks again guys,

John