Working on my business plan for a 15-30 bbl production brewery that will also have a tap room and growler sales. I am wondering how accurate my projections are. I am hoping some seasoned brewers will let me know if my thinking is right or not. My figures look right, and I have them formulated on Xcel, but my per bbl $ number seems much higher than the industry average. I would love for it to be correct though
Here is my first year projections. This is based roughly on 15 bbl system with ~1500 bbl capacity the first year. We will only be packaging in kegs until we decide that we have grown enough to support a bottling/canning line. Probably moving to 750's first with some specialty beers. We will be self-distributing to start into a market with lots of beer bars and not a lot of local beers(right now, but growing like crazy)
Projecting 500 bbl sold first year. I think this may be 500 too low, but I am erring to the low side. We will have capacity if needed up to about 1500 upon start up and can add FV as needed to support more capacity. We are going to be in a market where everyone else is selling every drop of beer they can make.
Breakdown as % of bbl sold as I am projecting(just stabbing into the dark, I have no idea) this is based on 500 bbl with 40% sold at tap room in pints and growlers and 60% to accounts. Numbers are price as a unit and price per ounce.
PINT $4.00 $0.25 20%
REG GROWLER $12.00 $0.19 20%
1/6 BBL $50.00 $0.08 35%
1/2 BBL $130.00 $0.07 25%
When I calculate a weighted average, I come up with $.13 per ounce, which then equates to just over $500 per bbl. This seems higher than it should be, but maybe it is right with ~40% of sales at retail or close to retail. I based the keg pricing of some research and average price. Let me know if it looks right.
Thanks
Matt
Here is my first year projections. This is based roughly on 15 bbl system with ~1500 bbl capacity the first year. We will only be packaging in kegs until we decide that we have grown enough to support a bottling/canning line. Probably moving to 750's first with some specialty beers. We will be self-distributing to start into a market with lots of beer bars and not a lot of local beers(right now, but growing like crazy)
Projecting 500 bbl sold first year. I think this may be 500 too low, but I am erring to the low side. We will have capacity if needed up to about 1500 upon start up and can add FV as needed to support more capacity. We are going to be in a market where everyone else is selling every drop of beer they can make.
Breakdown as % of bbl sold as I am projecting(just stabbing into the dark, I have no idea) this is based on 500 bbl with 40% sold at tap room in pints and growlers and 60% to accounts. Numbers are price as a unit and price per ounce.
PINT $4.00 $0.25 20%
REG GROWLER $12.00 $0.19 20%
1/6 BBL $50.00 $0.08 35%
1/2 BBL $130.00 $0.07 25%
When I calculate a weighted average, I come up with $.13 per ounce, which then equates to just over $500 per bbl. This seems higher than it should be, but maybe it is right with ~40% of sales at retail or close to retail. I based the keg pricing of some research and average price. Let me know if it looks right.
Thanks
Matt
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