MircoBrewery Self-Distribution Estimates

[BenBrew]

I'm putting together some figures for a business plan for a 20 BBL Microbrewery and have run into a range of figures for estimated first year sales. I expect to be be self-distributing for the first year of production, or at least mostly self-distributing, and have found few estimates or even averages of first year sales estimates. I have found that a good estimate for a brewpub runs somewhere around 600 BBLs in the first year. I was wondering what the discrepancy between the brewpub figures and microbreweries in terms of volume of sales in the first year and possibly beyond. Any insight into personal experiences would help, as I know the local market has much to do with specific outcomes. Thanks!

Cheers,
Ben

[frigatebay]

A lot depends on how big an area you cover, how many different products you have and most of all how much will people buy. My experience is that there is no way to estimate sales with any reasonable degree of certainty

[Moonlight]

I would think that brewpub numbers have little relevance to wholesale delivered numbers. I am doing what you are attempting, and there are an incredible number of factors that affect your first year sales. Try going to the places that you expect to sell your beer and ask them a range of what they might sell. Imagine if few of their customers liked your beer better than another available pint, compared to, if your pint (with no reputation) tasted more like what the bar's customers preferred...you could see how a randomly chosen sales figure is really pretty useless as a prediction. Determine how many places you would conservatively need to have selling your beer and see how much time/energy it would take to deliver to those places, if they will even take your beer. Actual market research will trump what you can do on a computer. Your estimates may be more useful for "what if" scenarios and to give you an idea how much you need to sell to make rent and stuff. It will be up to both your brewing and marketing abilities to meet those sales needs.

[einhorn]

I agree with Moonlight. This is a very hard number to generate, as there are numerous factors involved, no matter what type of business one get's into.

Nonetheless, you can use a theoretical value with some hard numbers (days available per year, # of salesmen, visits per day, average "hit rate", average consumption per outlet on-trade and off-trade, etc.) but in my experience in the beverage industry has always shown one factor, which no one can predict: the acceptance of your beer & the brand(s).

Be moderate with these estimates, and try to avoid being overenthusiastic - good luck!

Prosit

[BenBrew]

Thanks

Thank you all for your posts. I definitely agree with you that I'm trying to put some degree of finality on a number that has a huge degree of uncertainty. You are correct is saying that direct market research is probably the greatest estimate or a reasonably thought out equasion may give me more of an idea of what to expect. Thanks again.

Cheers,
Ben