2012 Hop Harvest

[schlosser]

Here we are well into the 2012 Hop Harvest and there hasn't been anything posted here in the forum that I've seen on how things are going. I've heard some rumblings that things are not so good out in the hop fields. I can only assume that from the deafening silence from growers and hop merchants that we may be in for another bad hop crop.

Anyone have any more info on how things are going?

Cheers,
Dave

[BiteMyLip]

Hop Supply ???

I find it interesting that here on this "Hop" forum, moderated by HOP UNION the "Grower Owned CRAFT Specialist" that the moderator has not had a post since 11-28-2009. Maybe its time for DONTHEBRWER (comment on that moniker another time) to once agin explain how this Supply Vs Demand thingy works.

[einhorn]

Here are the market reports from Hopsteiner

http://www.hopsteiner.com/html/marketletter.php

[BiteMyLip]

save that data....compare it to actual yields when harvest is over
An estimate on August 1 is just a guess.....Ill give SSS credit for an educated guess.....Like Dave said, "its TO QUIET"

[mkunce]

Re

Of course the hop cartel will report a disastrous year. Shortages everywhere - no hops for you.

[petebearvalley]

NW hops are looking great

I've been to hop farms in Idaho, Oregon and Washington over the past month and the hops are looking great in this region. No major issues reported by the farmers.

[BiteMyLip]

Pete,

Growers regularly report to you?
Do you have an inside track that the rest of us don't?

[schmogger]

I spoke with one of my hop suppliers and asked how the harvest has been going and his response was "bad". He said there was not way to candy coat it and it is going to be another tough year.

[BiteMyLip]

Reply to Altwise

2012 hop crop
________________________________________
Well, I think brewers should be suspicious. Nothing was learned by the large brokers about how they treat their customers in recent years. Acreage planted in 2008-09 are coming into full production and there are more and more alternatives to Big Hops.

Fact Check…US acreage in 2008 was roughly 40,000 acres…..drastic reduction in acres since then leave US with only 30,000 acres…Hows that for full production?

Okay, now onto the outlook. European growers saw some of the worst production levels in recent memory, especially in the Czech region and southern Germany, Slovakia, etc. All Mother Nature. The Midwest and East Coast (although small volume) were also heavily impacted by the heat/drought. Expect lower alpha levels across the board this year ( http://news.yahoo.com/czech-hops-har...--finance.html)

European Growers…take Germany out of your statement and your close, but the rest of Europe has minimal impact in the world supply of hops.

PNW crops battled mildew all season and powdery mildew continues to ravage that region. We talk with our brewers about the crop all season long so they can know what to expect come harvest. It's not only good business, it's the right thing to do.

Ravage that region, you bet… Flood in Idaho, mildew in Oregon (controllable) mites in isolated areas of Washington…..you talk about the effects of drought in your region that’s an issue there. PNW continues on a cooling pattern which reduces overall yield in lbs but increase in Alpha…don’t forget all the new plantings, how do they fair in cooler climate?

Combine all of that data with the fact that AB/InBev is shifting their hop of choice to Cascade brewers can expect their old stand-by varieties to be elevated in price if they are not already...

Fact Check ABI has not shifted to Cascades as their hop of choice, they are tacking Goose Island Nation Wide…Combine all that data??? What data do you speak of?

However you are spot on in regards to the poor communication from the merchants on harvest projections. Brewers, being the ONLY customer the merchant’s have are entitled to real time production information which would allow for a plan of action in the event of harvest anomalies whether they be long or short.
__________________

[BiteMyLip]

Reply to the Rebuttal

Dr Altwise,

You failed to include any comment on what appears to be the intended topic of this thread, the Merchants lack of communication to the Brewing Community.

-----However you are spot on in regards to the poor communication from the merchants on harvest projections. Brewers, being the ONLY customer the merchant’s have are entitled to real time production information which would allow for a plan of action in the event of harvest anomalies whether they be long or short.------


If I were a bigger man I would just leave it at that….BUT you make it so hard. With all your half truths and inaccurate statements of fact I just have to say…


From JA “--AB did indeed speak with the Hop Research Council only a few weeks ago where they let their intentions be known that they will seek an additional 10,000 acres of Cascade in the coming few seasons. Why I cannot say. –“

Fact check ----
The last HRC meeting was in Portland the first week of August in conjunction with the WBC.
I was there….couple of things I must have missed.

1) Statement from ABI about Cascades
2) Your presence at the HRC meeting
Granted I did have to get up and pee a couple times and I may have been a bit hung-over on the second day but you weren’t there and I did not hear any Cascade comment from ABI

When I speak of data, what comes to mind are values of qualitative or quantitative variables, not opinions, ideas, assumptions or a hodgepodge of extraneous thoughts from your extensive archive of records (that’s Google to everyone else.)

Free exchange of thought and information is a wonderful thing….glad to participate in a dialog of substance. I’m sure that your vast experience in brewing and your long history of supplying hops to the global brewing community is what makes your insightful commentary full of …….substance

I shall continue to....Bitemylip –

[ArrowheadHops]

Here we are well into the 2012 Hop Harvest and there hasn't been anything posted here in the forum that I've seen on how things are going. I've heard some rumblings that things are not so good out in the hop fields. I can only assume that from the deafening silence from growers and hop merchants that we may be in for another bad hop crop.

Anyone have any more info on how things are going?

Cheers,
Dave

Well I can’t speak for the PNW growers but we’ve finished our harvest and have received our testing data. So to summarize the season here in Iowa (on our farm anyway) we saw on average a lower yield overall but slightly higher alphas. If anyone ever has any questions please feel free to contact me.

Andy

[markl1420]

Shortage

We were informed yesterday that the crops were all short and it would be a struggle this year.

[russdog63]

Here is a release from Hopsteiner about the 2012 Hop Forcast

"12 June 2012
Please find attached, the just released USDA hop acreage report for the United States .
Points of interest:
Total U.S.A. hop acreage for 2012 is 30,808 vs. 29,787 in 2011 – an increase of 3.4% year-to-year
Idaho acreage increased 184 acres
Oregon acreage decreased 80 acres
Washington acreage increased 917 acres
Total U.S.A. acreage increased 1,021 acres
The biggest change in Oregon was a decrease in Willamette by 124 acres to 655 acres.
For comparison, Washington Willamette acreage decreased 293 acres to 601 total.
Oregon Cascade acreage increased by 73 acres
Significant changes in Washington include:
Cascade up 536 acres
Centennial up 724 acres
Chinook up 418 acres
Citra up 313 acres
Simcoe up 427 acres
CTZ down 1,479 acres
Galena down 464 acres
This demonstrates that the shift from alpha/bitter hops to aroma/flavor hops is in full force. Please keep in mind that new, “Baby Plantings” can not be expected to provide full yields in this first year, and that the timing and manner of the new plantings, and the growing season weather will now determine the total production of first year hop yards.
Best Regards,
S.S. Steiner, Inc."

To just look at the total acreage dropping from 40,000 to 30,000 and conclude that there are going to be planned shortages is just wrong. In 2008when hop growers jumped production up to 40,000 acres they overreacted and reacted in a wrong way. They did not address the increased demand for aroma varieties and overproduced high alphas. Now they are reacting correctly to the demand for aromas. This last year they have doubled and even tripled the acreage of high demand aroma varieties such as Centennial, Chinook, Simcoe, and Citra. Not listed in this report is Amarillo. I am friends the grower (Virgil Gamache Farms) and they have tripled the acreage of Amarillo to about 1100 acres.

I have talked to Darren Gamache about the supply of Amarillo and the Gamache Farm's goal of meeting demand. He is dedicated to meeting demand and in fact would like to get to a place where there is a surlplus of Amarillo. However, maintaining quality is his first priority. He is very proud and guarded about the repuation and branding of Amarillo and wants to make sure that highest quality will remain. Darren is also a grower that is a brewer at heart. He not only wants to grow quality hops but is on the cutting edge of learning about what compounds in hops contribute to flavors that brewers want and don't want. This is going to put him in a situation to better provide brewers what they want. I have talked to other hop farmer's in the Yakima Valley and they have a similar commitment to meeting customer demand and maintaining quality.

The fact that production is down 10,000 acres is not a bad thing. The result is 10,000 acres with hop poles currently doing nothing. This puts Yakima Valley growers in a position to more easily meet worldwide demand in the near future. I believe it cost around $20,000 an acre to put the poles in. The infrastructure is there, all the growers have to do is plant the extra acreage. I believe the cost is about $700 per acre. The growers are more in tune with the demand of aromas now.

I am not sure what the situation with the 2012 harvest is now. I do believe that with all the extra acres of high demand aroma hops the craft brewing industry will be better supplied this year and in the next few years to come.

[russdog63]

Here is a release from Hopsteiner about the 2012 Hop Forcast

"12 June 2012
Please find attached, the just released USDA hop acreage report for the United States .
Points of interest:
Total U.S.A. hop acreage for 2012 is 30,808 vs. 29,787 in 2011 – an increase of 3.4% year-to-year
Idaho acreage increased 184 acres
Oregon acreage decreased 80 acres
Washington acreage increased 917 acres
Total U.S.A. acreage increased 1,021 acres
The biggest change in Oregon was a decrease in Willamette by 124 acres to 655 acres.
For comparison, Washington Willamette acreage decreased 293 acres to 601 total.
Oregon Cascade acreage increased by 73 acres
Significant changes in Washington include:
Cascade up 536 acres
Centennial up 724 acres
Chinook up 418 acres
Citra up 313 acres
Simcoe up 427 acres
CTZ down 1,479 acres
Galena down 464 acres
This demonstrates that the shift from alpha/bitter hops to aroma/flavor hops is in full force. Please keep in mind that new, “Baby Plantings” can not be expected to provide full yields in this first year, and that the timing and manner of the new plantings, and the growing season weather will now determine the total production of first year hop yards.
Best Regards,
S.S. Steiner, Inc."

To just look at the total acreage dropping from 40,000 to 30,000 and conclude that there are going to be planned shortages is just wrong. In 2008when hop growers jumped production up to 40,000 acres they overreacted and reacted in a wrong way. They did not address the increased demand for aroma varieties and overproduced high alphas. Now they are reacting correctly to the demand for aromas. This last year they have doubled and even tripled the acreage of high demand aroma varieties such as Centennial, Chinook, Simcoe, and Citra. Not listed in this report is Amarillo. I am friends the grower (Virgil Gamache Farms) and they have tripled the acreage of Amarillo to about 1100 acres.

I have talked to Darren Gamache about the supply of Amarillo and the Gamache Farm's goal of meeting demand. He is dedicated to meeting demand and in fact would like to get to a place where there is a surlplus of Amarillo. However, maintaining quality is his first priority. He is very proud and guarded about the repuation and branding of Amarillo and wants to make sure that highest quality will remain. Darren is also a grower that is a brewer at heart. He not only wants to grow quality hops but is on the cutting edge of learning about what compounds in hops contribute to flavors that brewers want and don't want. This is going to put him in a situation to better provide brewers what they want. I have talked to other hop farmer's in the Yakima Valley and they have a similar commitment to meeting customer demand and maintaining quality.

The fact that production is down 10,000 acres is not a bad thing. The result is 10,000 acres with hop poles currently doing nothing. This puts Yakima Valley growers in a position to more easily meet worldwide demand in the near future. I believe it cost around $20,000 an acre to put the poles in. The infrastructure is there, all the growers have to do is plant the extra acreage. I believe the cost is about $700 per acre. The growers are more in tune with the demand of aromas now.

I am not sure what the situation with the 2012 harvest is now. I do believe that with all the extra acres of high demand aroma hops the craft brewing industry will be better supplied this year and in the next few years to come.

[BiteMyLip]

“The fact that production is down 10,000 acres is not a bad thing. The result is 10,000 acres with hop poles currently doing nothing. This puts Yakima Valley growers in a position to more easily meet worldwide demand in the near future.

Wish it were that simple…there is more to it than just a reduction in acreage 2007 to 2012.
Some key factors to consider.

Reduction in Willamette acreage of approx. 6,000 acres……that’s a big impact on the varieties picked “early season”.

Reduction in ALPHA acreage of approx. 9,000 acres……that’s a big impact on the varieties picked “late season”.

Cascade, Centennial, Chinook, Simcoe, Citra have almost tripled in acreage.……that’s a big impact on the varieties picked “mid season” .

There may be a bunch of idle acres but you will soon exceed mid season picking capacity……what happens then?

Are you willing to pay more for hops so that new pickers and dryers can be built?