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Brewery in planning..a few questions!

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  • Brewery in planning..a few questions!

    Hi everyone! I'm brand new to this site and I'm hoping to pick your brains about a few things. Myself and 2 partners recently closed on a building and plan to open a small brewery by summer 2022. To help keep this from being super long winded I'll just use bullet points of the plan we currently have and the questions I have that are related to it.

    -We are currently looking to start with a 2bbl system, in a town of ~18k people, with 2 other current breweries. We will be located in a prime location in downtown.
    -Our current floor plan allows for roughly 90 seats inside, with an additional 50-60 seats in an outside patio area.
    -We plan to have food, most likely in the form of food trucks in rotation
    -The floor plan also includes a stage area for live music

    The main questions I have are about sales expectations. I've done research at the two other local breweries but they aren't exactly willing to give exact sales numbers. We plan to do ZERO distro and will serve every ounce of beer we make from our taproom. How much throughput do you think we'd have? Our "low" expectations are 8bbl per month, which would be about 100 pints/day if we're open 5 days a week. Our mid expectations are 16bbl per month. Is this too optimistic? Too low? Will we have a stockpile of kegs or will we need to brew every day to keep up?

    We put a decent down payment on the building, so we owe just under $100k on that. The plan we have for renovations puts us on track for an additional $200k in loans, for a total debt of around $300k. Is this a viable plan in a smaller town with a 2bbl system with that much startup debt?

    I would love to hear some feedback of others who have a nano brewery in a small town. Thanks in advance for your help!
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