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Business plan through 35 pages then stuck: Financial Forecast NW Ohio

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  • Business plan through 35 pages then stuck: Financial Forecast NW Ohio

    Good morning everyone,

    Here is where we are at... Stuck

    My wife and I are opening a 7BBL brewery in town that has two colleges, lots of retail license sellers, and very little regional competition (NW Ohio). Have some pretty solid equipment quotes through Kinnek and on here for new and used options from the base facility all the way through expansion in multiple areas. We recently worked out a land contract with the owner of an M-1 zoned facility for purchase that has a 6700 sq ft production facility and 23k sq ft across the entire property. Plenty of starting cash has been aquired to either set up the business or buy the building outright and hunt for investment capital. The land contract terms are preliminarily though it works in our favor since we will have the first 4 years interest free for a 50k downpayment. I have about 40 kegs of our potential 140 kegs per month spoken for off of a 5 fermenter output estimate. We are set up for a substantial beer garden during the summer and the event room inside (2500 sq ft) will be a live sound recording studio allowing our touring bands to record live albums as part of their $$$ for the night if they would like. The live hall will be our taproom expansion.

    We are currently trying to get our bank involved for a business line of credit or a loan to secure our set up and 6 mo of operations, but there isn't a comparable system close to us (the nearest brewery a town over is only a 1 BBL) and we are not finding the numbers we need for a financial forecast. We are relying on local restaurants for delivery and catering services and have two available food trucks through friends so we are purely a beer production and event facility. All of the samples I keep finding on ProBrewer are restaurant/brew based or way too incomplete.

    I have our max output shown for 5 fermenters vs 6 fermenters to show growth potential at max gross sales and 70% sales per month to show a reasonable forcast. I broke it down on pure keg and pure taproom sales numbers based on Beerco (budweiser) pricing guides for the regional distributor. They do have some craft brew offerings and I have set the same price model for retail license holders while upping them 10$ a keg for off the street purchases. A solid Taproom should probably pull around 30% sales from all I have read on here (potentially more with our format) and a canning/bottling line will be added at some point to expand sales. We are planning crowlers like Oskar Blues instead of growler refills to keep things simple. Our beers will tap sell as tasters, 10 oz, and 16 oz options with pricing set near 2$ for single tasters and 5$ for 10/16 oz split by ABV. Discounting 1$ on a full glass if a taster bought first. Our Beer selection will start with Lager, Session IPA, ESB, and Imperial Strong Ale. We also look to have beer collaborations and keg swaps with other craft breweries to have a 20+ selection in our taproom.

    Does anyone have any suggestions on where to find a reasonable 7BBL forcast for a pure start up on the brew only end of things or happen to have a spreadsheet that we might be able to look at before we start running into new banks a bit shorthanded on the numbers? We are so close to getting everything in place and putting the ball in play.

    Thanks for any help or advice you might have for our venture,

    Aaron and Rose

  • #2
    I just wanted to update that we found help in getting our financials set to industry standards through the Small Business Development Center 20 minutes down the road located in a local community college. All in all, it cost us some time, but was completely free. It took a few weeks of consulting with them and ironing out projections, but in the end we gained a solid set of numbers (pro forma) and even loan projections tabulated to submit to our lender. We were pre-approved by our lender for our initial request and are now working toward some overflow capital to help with building renovations and future growth.

    Thank you everyone that replied privately and took time to read our situation. I hope that others in the same spot consider looking for their local SBDC as well as Ohio has 40 locations alone. Just assuming that each state has a similar program available.