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Estimating BBL per seat for startup brewery

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  • Estimating BBL per seat for startup brewery

    I know this type of question has been asked before, but wanted to get more opinions.
    We are opening a brewery along the Front Range of Colorado (north of Denver) and already own a 1300sqft metal building with drains/water/power/etc. on a 1/3rd of an acre.
    In my Business Plan we are estimating 50 seats (all indoors, will eventually have at least 50 outdoor probably available 2020), 4 core cask beers on tap, and some rotators (& the core beers on CO2, also), and I had estimated 80bbls 1st year (1.6bbl/seat), 100bbls 2nd year (2.0bbl/seat), and 133bbls (2.66bbl/seat). We are working on setting up our food truck permanently onsite (one of owners is a chef/restaurant owner), as we believe food enhances beer sales.
    The location is off the beaten path in an industrial area, probably a mile from a downtown area and about a mile or so and a branded hotel about 1/4mile away, the other hotels are within a couple of miles.

    Do my estimates for years 1 to 3 seem a bit high or low? If low, I'm thinking of selling my current brewing systems (1bbl pilot & 3bbl production) for 1 7bbl system.

    Any help, appreciated.

  • #2
    Seems very realistic. If you can't sell 80 barrels, why bother... I don't know about a market for cask only, but bet Colorado could support that given the advanced beer curve there. Some other guy proposed first year of 750 bbls in a town of 80K. He received different answers.


    • #3
      how would you even begin to guesstimate how many bbl's in first three years?