Bottle sales for a 1 BBL nano

[uptown brothers]

The thing is I am just really worried about the sales forecast. I have a really great location, 896 sq feet in the best location in the entire county. Maybe another nanobrewer can chime in here. I am forecasting 1500 units in on-premise pint sales a month from day one. I don't sell food at all, but I'm right next to two really great restaurants. Is this a realistic goal?

Good luck! Assuming you're in western Loudoun, there are two other 1-3 bbl nanos I'm aware of out there--Corcoran, kind of off the beaten path between Purcellville and Lovettsville, next to Corcoran Vineyard/Winery, and Mad Horse in Lovettsville. Also, a brewpub in Leesburg, Vintage 50. Of course if you're in Eastern Loudoun there's also Lost Rhino in Ashburn.

Corcoran doesn't sell any food, but has a guy who comes in and does BBQ under a shed roof next to their patio Mad horse has simple stuff like brats, and Vintage 50 is a full serve restaurant; Haven't been to Lost Rhino but I'm pretty sure it's in the old Dominion Brewery space which definitely included a full service restaurant. So of these the closest to what you're doing are probably Mad Horse and Corcoran. Both of these are larger than 900 sq ft; I'd guess about 1500 each.

Have you dropped by any of these to gauge what they're doing, both in terms of volume and price point? Not that what they do should change your mind about what you're gonna do, just to see.

The guy from Corcoran has posted here fairly recently...

[CrookedRun]

Guys, don't worry, I've got a business plan with sales forecast, budget, etc. I'm not an expert and I definitely have a lot to learn, but I'm not taking this lightly at all.

[CrookedRun]

Good luck! Assuming you're in western Loudoun, there are two other 1-3 bbl nanos I'm aware of out there--Corcoran, kind of off the beaten path between Purcellville and Lovettsville, next to Corcoran Vineyard/Winery, and Mad Horse in Lovettsville. Also, a brewpub in Leesburg, Vintage 50. Of course if you're in Eastern Loudoun there's also Lost Rhino in Ashburn.

Corcoran doesn't sell any food, but has a guy who comes in and does BBQ under a shed roof next to their patio Mad horse has simple stuff like brats, and Vintage 50 is a full serve restaurant; Haven't been to Lost Rhino but I'm pretty sure it's in the old Dominion Brewery space which definitely included a full service restaurant. So of these the closest to what you're doing are probably Mad Horse and Corcoran. Both of these are larger than 900 sq ft; I'd guess about 1500 each.

Have you dropped by any of these to gauge what they're doing, both in terms of volume and price point? Not that what they do should change your mind about what you're gonna do, just to see.

The guy from Corcoran has posted here fairly recently...

Yep, Jim Corcoran offered to lend me a hand with this actually.

I've got a bit of a different business plan and model.

[OurMutualBrewer]

Yo dude, good luck and congrats on your new plans to make beer for a living! I thought I would chime in here, since we opened our 1bbl nano a few months ago.

If you have any foot traffic at all, you will not be able to keep up with demand only brewing a couple times a week. We have a killer location, and every week we keg 6-8 BBL of beer (we usually have 7-8 different brews on tap). Every Monday I walk back in to the cold room, and its mostly gone. I highly, highly doubt you have have enough beer to put into a bottle!

Anywho, just thought I would give you my thoughts on the original topic. Good luck!

[kbills]

I would self-distribute to stores and sell them at $6.50 a bottle, and would expect them to retail for $10 a bottle.

Self distribution is not legal in Virginia. You would have to go through a distributor. That means selling to them at a price that they make a profit selling to the stores at a price that the stores then make profit. The distributors typically mark up what you charge them by 30-40%, and the stores mark up another 30%.

-Kevin

[uptown brothers]

Yo dude, good luck and congrats on your new plans to make beer for a living! I thought I would chime in here, since we opened our 1bbl nano a few months ago.

If you have any foot traffic at all, you will not be able to keep up with demand only brewing a couple times a week. We have a killer location, and every week we keg 6-8 BBL of beer (we usually have 7-8 different brews on tap). Every Monday I walk back in to the cold room, and its mostly gone. I highly, highly doubt you have have enough beer to put into a bottle!

Anywho, just thought I would give you my thoughts on the original topic. Good luck!

Man I am really looking forward to coming in. You guys are selling 6-8 bbls a week, retail, on-premise? Hallelujah! (and congratulations!) PS why put beer in a bottle when you can sell all you can make at retail tasting room prices?

[sok454]

Yo dude, good luck and congrats on your new plans to make beer for a living! I thought I would chime in here, since we opened our 1bbl nano a few months ago.

If you have any foot traffic at all, you will not be able to keep up with demand only brewing a couple times a week. We have a killer location, and every week we keg 6-8 BBL of beer (we usually have 7-8 different brews on tap). Every Monday I walk back in to the cold room, and its mostly gone. I highly, highly doubt you have have enough beer to put into a bottle!

Anywho, just thought I would give you my thoughts on the original topic. Good luck!

Wait wait...I thought a 1bbl nano couldn't survive?!?!?!?! At least that's what everyone likes to tell me... granted I'm looking at 2.5-5bbl but... still. Good job guys!

[einhorn]

every week we keg 6-8 BBL of beer (we usually have 7-8 different brews on tap).

Maybe you can extrapolate on how you crank out 6-8 bbls of beer per week, keep 7-8 different beers on tap with a 1 bbl system.

Thanks

[sok454]

Maybe you can extrapolate on how you crank out 6-8 bbls of beer per week, keep 7-8 different beers on tap with a 1 bbl system.

Thanks

I wondered that too... I just thought I was too dense to understand.

[nateo]

I guess if you have a lot of fermentors and you can brew two batches a day, four days a week, you could get up to 8bbl per week.

That sounds like a ton of work for only 8bbls though. . .

[einhorn]

...and you would have to hang up a few photos of yourself around the house to remind your family what you look like.

[nateo]

Wait wait...I thought a 1bbl nano couldn't survive?!?!?!?! At least that's what everyone likes to tell me... granted I'm looking at 2.5-5bbl but... still. Good job guys!

I don't think I've heard anyone say you can't "survive" on a 1bbl system. The consensus seems to be that you can't break even if you pay yourself for your time on a 1bbl system. If you ignore your own labor costs, then you can come out ahead on paper.

Also, if you're at all successful you'll need a bigger brewhouse almost immediately, but the amount of cash generated at 1bbl isn't enough to internally fund that expansion. Meaning, you'll still need investors, loans, or both.

So it's not "impossible," it's just a short-sighted approach that ends up wasting a lot of time and money. But some people seem to think that's the only way they can get off the ground, and maybe they're right.

[OurMutualBrewer]

Funny this has come up again.

We were brewing 36 gallon batches two times a day, 5 or 6 days a week. Every week we would keg around 10 batches of beer. That's how we did it. It was extremely difficult. You have to be committed and ready to have no life for the sake of your business. Its also really annoying to start the week with a full tap list, and then walk in the brewery on Monday and only have a few kegs left. So stressful.

We have since bought a 3.5 bbl brew house with 7 bbl fermenters, which I why I am able to actually sip a beer and browse the forums right now!

[OurMutualBrewer]

I don't think I've heard anyone say you can't "survive" on a 1bbl system. The consensus seems to be that you can't break even if you pay yourself for your time on a 1bbl system. If you ignore your own labor costs, then you can come out ahead on paper.

Also, if you're at all successful you'll need a bigger brewhouse almost immediately, but the amount of cash generated at 1bbl isn't enough to internally fund that expansion. Meaning, you'll still need investors, loans, or both.

So it's not "impossible," it's just a short-sighted approach that ends up wasting a lot of time and money. But some people seem to think that's the only way they can get off the ground, and maybe they're right.

Also, I agree with Nateo, and I don't think I would do it the same way again (I think I have said this before on the forums). It IS short sighted, but we were able to fund our expansion internally, and I do indeed get a paycheck. We have no loans, and as I have said, are in a pretty high traffic area so we can maximize our taproom sales, but it is a hard life to live. You can never seem to keep up, and its on YOUR shoulders.

Bah. Hard stuff, and I am happy we are where we are at now, but given a crystal ball I probably would have waited until I could raise enough money for a real brew system.

[nateo]

Also, I agree with Nateo, and I don't think I would do it the same way again (I think I have said this before on the forums). It IS short sighted, but we were able to fund our expansion internally, and I do indeed get a paycheck. We have no loans, and as I have said, are in a pretty high traffic area so we can maximize our taproom sales, but it is a hard life to live. You can never seem to keep up, and its on YOUR shoulders.

I'm surprised you were able to buy the new system without external funds. But, I'm also surprised you were able to double brew 6 days a week, plus do all the other stuff you need to run a business.

How much did you end up spending on your new system, if you don't mind my asking?

3.5bbl is still pretty small, how long do you think until you max that out, and what's your plan for if/when that happens?