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  • Brewpub Sales Projections. Over- Estimation?

    I am putting together my business plan for a brewpub. It will consist of a 7BBL brewhouse, and full resturaunt with seating in the resturaunt to be around 70, and an additional 30 for bar/taproom. The population of my area within a 5 mile radius is 82,000, and the entire population of my city is roughly 300K. With the 100 seating capacity I have and being open an average of 14 hours a day my sales projections are based upon 1 pint per seat, per hour of operation. Which gives me an average of 1400 pints per day. Does this seem right? I have a feeling its an over-estimation. I have searched around and that was the best assumption I could find. Should I lower it to .5 pints per seat per hour in the resturaunt and 1.5 for the bar/taproom, which will stay open roughly 3 hours longer than the resturaunt.
    Any insight would be helpful.

  • #2
    At That rate you would serve over 2000bbls a year and be the #1 Brewpub in America! Id say your estimate is off by a factor of 10.
    Brewmaster, Minocqua Brewing Company
    tbriggs@minocquabrewingcompany.com
    "Your results may vary"

    Comment


    • #3
      The component I see that you missed is that you will not have 100% occupancy. If you have a butt in a seat (and they are an adult), then maybe 1 pint/hr is a good average. Unfortunately, I know of no business that can fill their seats all of the time. You need to model the peaks and valleys of traffic flow (e.g. lunch is going to be busier than 3pm) to better estimate sales numbers.
      Have to checked out some of the research that the Cornell School of Hotel/Hospitality has available?

      Comment


      • #4
        I have a 25 seat tasting room - open for about a month now. Small town, but good beer crowd. Yesterday I was open for 5 hours - sold 50 pints and 4 growler fills. Friday and Saturday will be about double that. For March I will total about 4bbls through the tasting room.
        I'm just starting out and still growing, but it's some numbers to chew on.
        Prost!
        Eric Brandjes
        Cole Street Brewery
        Enumclaw, WA

        Comment


        • #5
          The 2,000 BBL mark mentioned by Ted is what I calculated. To hit that capacity on single length brews, you'd have to be brewing in the neighborhood of 6-7 times a week. I'd suggest taking another swing at the sales side given others' input, but also take it from the production side. Here's a good thread on annual production calculations: http://discussions.probrewer.com/sho...size-matters-)

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          • #6
            Thanks. The spreadsheet I have created bases the production on the sales. The sales was the number I was far off on. I will readjust my assumptions in the spread sheet. Also, in my area there is no location that is setup with the same structure, so I am unable to go checkout what they would be doing.

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            • #7
              I understand that there are many variables that come along with set-ups, I just want to see what people are generally doing. Do you use serving tanks or Keg?

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              • #8
                A safe number is 5 bbls of beer sold per seat per year. Industry average is about 7, so plan on 5, you'll probably be golden. So at your 100 seats, you could be realistically selling 500-700 bbls per year.
                Cheers

                Comment


                • #9
                  I talked to a friend of mine who owns 4 successful brewpubs and one brewery and he told me that I should factor around 20% of food sales for beer sales. He told me that it is easier to work with than seat numbers. I figured my pub this way and we are currently running about 25%-30% of food sales so it is a safe number for me. There is a lot of variables to this as always.
                  Ben Pugh
                  Meddlesome Brewing Company
                  Memphis, TN

                  Eclectic Ales
                  Memphis, Tn

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I know this is an old thread, but have a question regarding calculations. When you say 5bbls per seat per year, how is that being figured? How many days a week and how many hours a day being open? We have a 3bbl brewery with 4 fermenters and 3 brite tanks. Plan on serving from 1/2 barrel kegs. Our capacity is 40 with bar and tables and chairs. We plan on purchasing the building which will more than double our square footage.

                    regards,

                    Kevin Whipple
                    Prosper Brewing, LLC

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Ted Briggs View Post
                      At That rate you would serve over 2000bbls a year and be the #1 Brewpub in America! Id say your estimate is off by a factor of 10.
                      Certainly wouldn't be #1 at 2000 barrels but otherwise agree, lofty and unrealistic.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Charmin1073 View Post
                        I know this is an old thread, but have a question regarding calculations. When you say 5bbls per seat per year, how is that being figured? How many days a week and how many hours a day being open? We have a 3bbl brewery with 4 fermenters and 3 brite tanks. Plan on serving from 1/2 barrel kegs. Our capacity is 40 with bar and tables and chairs. We plan on purchasing the building which will more than double our square footage.

                        regards,

                        Kevin Whipple
                        Prosper Brewing, LLC
                        Doesn't matter what the hours are. It's barrels per seat by the year.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by BeerBred View Post
                          Doesn't matter what the hours are. It's barrels per seat by the year.
                          So if you are open 8 or 80 hours a week you will sell 5bbl/seat/year?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Tallybrewer View Post
                            I am putting together my business plan for a brewpub. It will consist of a 7BBL brewhouse, and full resturaunt with seating in the resturaunt to be around 70, and an additional 30 for bar/taproom. The population of my area within a 5 mile radius is 82,000, and the entire population of my city is roughly 300K. With the 100 seating capacity I have and being open an average of 14 hours a day my sales projections are based upon 1 pint per seat, per hour of operation. Which gives me an average of 1400 pints per day. Does this seem right? I have a feeling its an over-estimation. I have searched around and that was the best assumption I could find. Should I lower it to .5 pints per seat per hour in the resturaunt and 1.5 for the bar/taproom, which will stay open roughly 3 hours longer than the resturaunt.
                            Any insight would be helpful.
                            I work at a brewpub and brew on a 5 bbl brewhouse in a bustling part of DC. Been open 5 years and we average about 1000 bbls a year. Our occupancy is 150. We do not package for off-premise sales except growler sales. Hope this helps. If I were you, I would aim for 750 bbls - first year might be higher if you can build up some good hype with the locals and your beer twitter fans.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Bbump22 View Post
                              I work at a brewpub and brew on a 5 bbl brewhouse in a bustling part of DC. Been open 5 years and we average about 1000 bbls a year. Our occupancy is 150. We do not package for off-premise sales except growler sales. Hope this helps. If I were you, I would aim for 750 bbls - first year might be higher if you can build up some good hype with the locals and your beer twitter fans.
                              Seriously?? Did you read the original post?? You are in a bustling part of DC and been open 5 years and you only sell 1000 barrels. This guy is in a town of 300K and only 82K within 5 miles. Theres no chance he does 750 first year or likely ever. Thats roughly 4 half kegs a day. If only 300K peeps in the area, more cattle country than a progressive city like DC. Good luck selling craft beers to them.

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