Looking for help to check my math on how many accounts we comfortable add each month to gauge our growth rate and decide between self distribution and using a 3rd party distributor.
Let's say production capacity is 5k barrels annually. First year, moved 600 through the taproom. Second year comes distribution.
If we only distributed half barrels, we be looking at 9,200 half barrels delivered in a year.
Assumption #1: A typical retailer would dispense 1 keg per month. I know consumption rates would vary between retailers, but is 30 days a pretty good overall average?
Assumption #2: The average account would require 3 kegs to maintain - 1 on tap, 1 in their coldroom, and one in our coldroom ready for delivery?
Assumption #3: For each 1,000 barrels/year we would distribute, we would need roughly 80 accounts. To maintain those accounts, we'd have to have 240 kegs. To max production, we'd have to have 368 accounts and over 1,000 kegs.
Assumption #4: 80 accounts would make 20 deliveries a week which a single driver could handle. At max, that would be just under 100 keg delivers each week. I'd imagine a single delivery driver could handle that as that's only about 20 kegs per day?
Lastly, I'd like to set a monthly sales target, but I don't know how many accounts to target adding each month so I added a poll. I assume that a 3rd party distributor could add accounts faster than going the self-distribution route thanks to their connections, but wasn't sure if/how many more accounts per month I should estimate?
Thanks for any advice!
Let's say production capacity is 5k barrels annually. First year, moved 600 through the taproom. Second year comes distribution.
If we only distributed half barrels, we be looking at 9,200 half barrels delivered in a year.
Assumption #1: A typical retailer would dispense 1 keg per month. I know consumption rates would vary between retailers, but is 30 days a pretty good overall average?
Assumption #2: The average account would require 3 kegs to maintain - 1 on tap, 1 in their coldroom, and one in our coldroom ready for delivery?
Assumption #3: For each 1,000 barrels/year we would distribute, we would need roughly 80 accounts. To maintain those accounts, we'd have to have 240 kegs. To max production, we'd have to have 368 accounts and over 1,000 kegs.
Assumption #4: 80 accounts would make 20 deliveries a week which a single driver could handle. At max, that would be just under 100 keg delivers each week. I'd imagine a single delivery driver could handle that as that's only about 20 kegs per day?
Lastly, I'd like to set a monthly sales target, but I don't know how many accounts to target adding each month so I added a poll. I assume that a 3rd party distributor could add accounts faster than going the self-distribution route thanks to their connections, but wasn't sure if/how many more accounts per month I should estimate?
Thanks for any advice!
Comment