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Thread: What am I missing here???

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Location
    Marietta
    Posts
    10

    What am I missing here???

    Iím working on financials for our 2 BBL Nano startup, if anyone has a minute check out this google doc of P&L and let me know what you think. Thanks!

    https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...0a8928416c.jpg

    https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...ab5dd1056d.jpg

    Edit: added image files instead of a Doc link.
    Last edited by DTimblin; 04-02-2019 at 12:00 PM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    2
    Couple of quick things I noted. How did you go from producing 24BBL/month to 480BBL/year?

    Depending on your location and local beer scene etc, figuring on selling 285 beers every single day you are open may be on the optimistic side.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    The South
    Posts
    180

    5bbl or larger

    My two cents...

    Please try to start with a larger brew system than 2bbl. I reviewed your attachments. You are servicing a $150,000 loan at $3,000 month. A 2bbl system ainít gonna cut it in the long run and will be brutal on your labor costs if you are the least bit successful.

    Please try to piece together something/build it yourself/frankenbrew some tanks etc. to get to at least a 5bbl system. Making your own frankenbrew equipment at the 5bbl size is easy and can be put together for around the same cost of a nice home brew system.
    Last edited by Catfish002; 04-02-2019 at 02:08 PM.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Location
    Marietta
    Posts
    10
    Quote Originally Posted by drbenj1 View Post
    Couple of quick things I noted. How did you go from producing 24BBL/month to 480BBL/year?

    Depending on your location and local beer scene etc, figuring on selling 285 beers every single day you are open may be on the optimistic side.
    I may have forgotten to change the yearly BBL when I downsized the brew house from previous numbers. 🤔

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Location
    Marietta
    Posts
    10
    Quote Originally Posted by Catfish002 View Post
    My two cents...

    Please try to start with a larger brew system than 2bbl. I reviewed your attachments. You are servicing a $150,000 loan at $3,000 month. A 2bbl system ainít gonna cut it in the long run and will be brutal on your labor costs if you are the least bit successful.

    Please try to piece together something/build it yourself/frankenbrew some tanks etc. to get to at least a 5bbl system. Making your own frankenbrew equipment at the 5bbl size is easy and can be put together for around the same cost of a nice home brew system.
    I ran the numbers at 3.5 BBL and 5 BBL and they definitely look better, Iím just looking to minimize my upfront costs and see if itís viable as a start up. Fully aware that if weíre as successful as we hope, having a plan to expand the brewhouse and cellar would need to be in place for less than a year out from opening.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    The South
    Posts
    180

    Debt kills breweries

    Nano sized system + $150,000 loan = your 2bbl system will be listed for sale here on Probrewer within a year (due to either realizing you needed a much larger system or you have already gone out of business)

    Will your loan cover both your 2bbl system costs and your 5bbl-15bbl expansion system costs within a year?

    Not trying to be harsh...but wanting to stress if going into $150,000 worth of debt for an undersized system is really even a good idea.
    Last edited by Catfish002; 04-02-2019 at 05:22 PM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Location
    Marietta
    Posts
    10

    What am I missing here???

    Quote Originally Posted by Catfish002 View Post
    Nano sized system + $150,000 loan = your 2bbl system will be listed for sale here on Probrewer within a year (due to either realizing you needed a much larger system or you have already gone out of business)

    Will your loan cover both your 2bbl system costs and your 5bbl-15bbl expansion system costs within a year?

    Not trying to be harsh...but wanting to stress if going into $150,000 worth of debt for an undersized system is really even a good idea.
    No problem being harsh, Iím looking for real opinions haha.

    The $150K is a ballpark figure for equipment/startup costs/raw materials/taproom buildout. If I can get the number down lower I for sure will take out a smaller loan.

    A similar project here (South Central PA) got started with a 1 BBL system and small taproom for about $60K but they worked like crazy the last 8 months and are just installing a 3 BBL system this week. Feels like if I can start a little bigger than that, and then expand more exponentially, our project will have a better chance and less risk of myself and my brewing partner burning out.


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  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Moorhead, Minnesota
    Posts
    610
    Agreed go bigger than 2 BBL. Tanks aren't that much more expensive as you size up, it's worth it

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Location
    Montana
    Posts
    34
    Just wanted to politely pile on...

    Debt kills small businesses. Avoid it or minimize it as much as possible.

    Don't open with a 2 bbl system, start at least at 4bbl size. We started at 4 bbl, and within 2 years upgraded to 7 bbl. Happy with 7 bbl production now, 4 bbl production was a struggle to keep up, and we are only a tap room with no meaningful distribution.

    Good luck.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Location
    Marietta
    Posts
    10
    Thanks everyone for the replies! Iíll probably go back at least to my 3.5 BBL numbers and see how they look with a smaller loan.

    Does anyone see any expenses or profits up there that seem wildly off??


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  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Columbus, OH
    Posts
    12
    As others have said, a 2bbl system will eat you alive. Start with 7 or 10. $150k might buy you a nice tap room, but a quick death. Your malt costs are too low, your electricity prices are too low, your water and sewer are too low. Donít assume 100% efficiency creating batches. Just because you can buy malt at .90 per lb doesnít mean 100% will get used and sold. You also have to consider square footage of storage. 200lbs of malt is 4 bags. Ordering malt every day is not feasible. 40 bags on a pallet only if itís the same kind, where will you put it all if itís not? Will you have a forklift? Where will it park? Next to the mill? Hot liquor tank?

    Youíll get ~34 pints from a 1/6, if youíre an expert at carbonating and chilling and zero waste at the taps. Brewers and bartenders are not so perfect at it. They will drink and spill beer. 2 people cannot run a brewery. 2 people can make beer for a brewery, but your labor is probably 1/4 of what it should be. You still need to schedule, pay bills, run errands, fix things, clean clean clean, deal with food truck nightmares, broken pinball machines, sour batches, (yeah, youíre going to screw up some batches, we can all tell) and sourcing less than pallet qty of anything takes a lot of time.

    2 bbbls is absurd no matter how many other people have done it. Start with minimum 5 and shoot for 10. Think about your projections, 8 bbls per week? Working 4 days? Who is going to sell those pints and clean that glassware?

    Can you even turn a bright tank 4 times per week? I ran a 30bbl system with 3 brights for over 10 years at maximum capacity and many weeks we could not turn all three brigh. 3 batches per week on a 2 bbl is ~12 fermenters, unless youíre filling 8bbl fermenters and serving 1 beer out of it. 12 fermenters is crazy talk for a pub. If you can raise $150k then get $300k and buy a real system. Have it made, buy used, whatever, do it right. Struggling small to then grow, is for the shortsighted and unsure.

    14 oz pints is also a dick move. Fractional pouring is awesome, but donít rely on screwing people. $6 per pint is realistic. Your profit of $1800 per bbl is closer to your revenue per bbl. your cost per bbl will be in the $500-750 range at 2bbls. So your profit is more like 1000-1300 per bbls at best. The hottest brew pubs barely break 500 bbls per year. You want to brew 250 times or you want to brew 50 times per year? Also an all electric system is going to run you closer to $3k per month at .08/kWH. Unless you somehow magically recover 100% of the heat energy and have no air conditioning anywhere in the building and no coolers or chillers or chilled tanks. I would use $3k as your electric. $12k as labor and $600 per bbl cost. Chemicals will be in the $200-400 per month range. How many kegs? All serving tanks? You need 3-4 kegs per tap handle minimum, and youíre already up to what, 14-16 tanks?

    You think 283 pints will sell based on the beerís merit alone? You need entertainment, food, music, something that will keep people there. Thatís expensive and not in your plan. $1000 goes straight to ASCAP/BMI etc for music alone,and yes, they will send paid listeners to bill you, and you have to pay even if you only do live music.

    Really listen to the people on here. 2bbls is a massive waste of time and money. Thereís a reason almost every successful brewpub in the entire world runs 7-10bbl systems. 4+ fermenters and 6+ serving tanks. Research this. So and so guy made a hundred million from brewing 50 gallon batches is a magical fairy tale. If youíre a magical fairy, then you donít need to make beer. Making beer isnít the business. Selling beer is, Open a bar if you want to try selling beer. Itís a lot cheaper with better selection and will give you an idea of how much work it is on top of brewing.

    Stop thinking 2bbls is okay for a business unless itís all for show.


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  12. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2019
    Location
    china
    Posts
    10

    5bbl

    2BBL maybe is too small to start-up .5bbl is much better or even 7-10bbl.
    As for cost, you may purchase the brewery kits from china .Yolong product are good quality ,also SSV product are good .
    you can send me email for ask a quotation randy@yolongbrewtech.com

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Moorhead, Minnesota
    Posts
    610
    Quote Originally Posted by chronolite View Post
    As others have said, a 2bbl system will eat you alive. Start with 7 or 10. $150k might buy you a nice tap room, but a quick death. Your malt costs are too low, your electricity prices are too low, your water and sewer are too low. Donít assume 100% efficiency creating batches. Just because you can buy malt at .90 per lb doesnít mean 100% will get used and sold. You also have to consider square footage of storage. 200lbs of malt is 4 bags. Ordering malt every day is not feasible. 40 bags on a pallet only if itís the same kind, where will you put it all if itís not? Will you have a forklift? Where will it park? Next to the mill? Hot liquor tank?

    Youíll get ~34 pints from a 1/6, if youíre an expert at carbonating and chilling and zero waste at the taps. Brewers and bartenders are not so perfect at it. They will drink and spill beer. 2 people cannot run a brewery. 2 people can make beer for a brewery, but your labor is probably 1/4 of what it should be. You still need to schedule, pay bills, run errands, fix things, clean clean clean, deal with food truck nightmares, broken pinball machines, sour batches, (yeah, youíre going to screw up some batches, we can all tell) and sourcing less than pallet qty of anything takes a lot of time.

    2 bbbls is absurd no matter how many other people have done it. Start with minimum 5 and shoot for 10. Think about your projections, 8 bbls per week? Working 4 days? Who is going to sell those pints and clean that glassware?

    Can you even turn a bright tank 4 times per week? I ran a 30bbl system with 3 brights for over 10 years at maximum capacity and many weeks we could not turn all three brigh. 3 batches per week on a 2 bbl is ~12 fermenters, unless youíre filling 8bbl fermenters and serving 1 beer out of it. 12 fermenters is crazy talk for a pub. If you can raise $150k then get $300k and buy a real system. Have it made, buy used, whatever, do it right. Struggling small to then grow, is for the shortsighted and unsure.

    14 oz pints is also a dick move. Fractional pouring is awesome, but donít rely on screwing people. $6 per pint is realistic. Your profit of $1800 per bbl is closer to your revenue per bbl. your cost per bbl will be in the $500-750 range at 2bbls. So your profit is more like 1000-1300 per bbls at best. The hottest brew pubs barely break 500 bbls per year. You want to brew 250 times or you want to brew 50 times per year? Also an all electric system is going to run you closer to $3k per month at .08/kWH. Unless you somehow magically recover 100% of the heat energy and have no air conditioning anywhere in the building and no coolers or chillers or chilled tanks. I would use $3k as your electric. $12k as labor and $600 per bbl cost. Chemicals will be in the $200-400 per month range. How many kegs? All serving tanks? You need 3-4 kegs per tap handle minimum, and youíre already up to what, 14-16 tanks?

    You think 283 pints will sell based on the beerís merit alone? You need entertainment, food, music, something that will keep people there. Thatís expensive and not in your plan. $1000 goes straight to ASCAP/BMI etc for music alone,and yes, they will send paid listeners to bill you, and you have to pay even if you only do live music.

    Really listen to the people on here. 2bbls is a massive waste of time and money. Thereís a reason almost every successful brewpub in the entire world runs 7-10bbl systems. 4+ fermenters and 6+ serving tanks. Research this. So and so guy made a hundred million from brewing 50 gallon batches is a magical fairy tale. If youíre a magical fairy, then you donít need to make beer. Making beer isnít the business. Selling beer is, Open a bar if you want to try selling beer. Itís a lot cheaper with better selection and will give you an idea of how much work it is on top of brewing.

    Stop thinking 2bbls is okay for a business unless itís all for show.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Wow, never thought I'd see a post on probrewer go viral. Great response

  14. #14
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    Portland, Oregon, USA
    Posts
    1
    The Lake Anne Brew House near Washington DC is a very successful 2-barrel brewery and the owners are having a blast running it. https://www.facebook.com/lakeannebrewhouse/

    I asked owner https://www.facebook.com/melissa.b.romano to comment here, and hopefully she will. They sell every drop on site and it's in a tourist location, so they are getting "full pint dollar" for their beer, not "distribution dollar." I'm certain that would make a difference.

    I own a 2-barrel Brewery that I lease out to start-ups as a business, "Lease A Nano." Leasing makes start up much cheaper because my clients rent the 2-barrel brewery for $1,295 per month on a 2-year renewable contract, and they can save their cash toward buying their 5-, 7-, 10- or 15-barrel brewery they really want. There's a big deposit of course, plus the lessee has to pay shipment to and from its homebase in Portland, Oregon, where it lives between "gigs." Each lessee installs the brewery at their location. The system has been to Minneapolis, Portland, and now Mankato. So far each lessee has only needed to lease the brewery system for 2 years, and at that point they could afford to scale up.

    (The brewery will be available again as of March 1, 2020, unless the current lessee decides to extend their lease for a year or two.)

    Cheers, LAN Manager
    http://leaseanano.com/

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